Late Holocene slip rate and average recurrence interval of great earthquakes on the Shangzhi segment of the Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone,northeastern China: Constraints from paleo‐earthquakes and historical written records          下载免费PDF全文

Zhongyuan Yu  Peizhen Zhang  Wei Min  Qinghai Wei  Yugang Liu 《Island Arc》2018,27(1)

The Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone (YYFZ) is considered to be the key branch of the Tancheng‐Lujiang Fault Zone (TLFZ) in northeastern China. Although the Mesozoic and early Cenozoic deformation of the YYFZ has been studied intensively over the past century, few estimates of slip rate and recurrence interval of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary, which are the two most important parameters for understanding the potential seismic hazard of this crucial structure, were obtained. Based on integrated interpretations of high resolution satellite images and detailed geologic and geomorphic mapping, linear landforms were identified, including fault scarps and troughs, along the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ, which exceeds 25 km in length. Synthesized results of trench excavations and differential GPS measurements of terrace surfaces indicate that two events (E1, E2) occurred along the Shangzhi segment during the late Holocene, which resulted in 3.2 ±0.1 m of total vertical co‐seismic displacement with clear features of thrust motion. ¹⁴C dating of samples suggests that event E1 occurred between 440 ±30 years BP and 180 ±30 years BP and that event E2 occurred between 4 090 ±30 years BP and 3 880 ±30 years BP, which indicates that the minimum vertical slip rate of the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ has been approximately 0.8 ±0.03 mm/year during the late Holocene. Constraints from paleo events and the slip rate suggest that the average recurrence interval of major earthquakes on the YYFZ is 3 800 ±200 years. Historical documents in Korea show that event E1 possibly corresponds to the earthquake that occurred in AD 1810 (the Qing Dynasty in Chinese history) in the Ningguta area, which had surface‐wave magnitude (Ms) of 6.8–7.5. Studies of kinematics show that the right‐lateral strike‐slip with a reverse component has been dominant along the YYFZ during the late Holocene.  相似文献   

Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for an ANN model of a karstic aquifer response     

Ioannis Trichakis  Ioannis Nikolos  George P. Karatzas 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2827-2836

Following many applications artificial neural networks (ANNs) have found in hydrology, a question has been rising for quantification of the output uncertainty. A pre‐optimized ANN simulated the hydraulic head change at two observation wells, having as input hydrological and meteorological parameters. In order to calculate confidence intervals (CI) for the ANN output two bootstrap methods were examined namely bootstrap percentile and BCa (Bias‐Corrected and accelerated). The actual coverage of the CI was compared to the theoretical coverage for different certainty levels as a means of examining the method's reliability. The results of this work support the idea that the bootstrap methods provide a simple tool for confidence interval computation of ANNs. Comparing the two methods, the percentile requires fewer calculations and yields narrower intervals with similar actual coverage to that of BCa. Overall, the actual coverage was proved lower than desired when not modeled points were present in the data subset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

In government we trust? Micro-business adaptation to climate change in four post-colonial and transitional economies of China     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Public expectations of government influence private action for managing climate change risks. Institutional neglect or incompetence result in a loss of trust in public institutions, consequently discouraging the public from taking added responsibility for risk management. This has been explained in terms of social contract, but evidence suggests that a politics of distrust can reinforce alternative social drivers of action, rather than displacing action. This is empirically confirmed by the present study, which examines the tendencies for adopting private protective measures across a gradient of institutional trust. Surveys were conducted in four jurisdictions within China that operate under two different political-economic systems, namely, Hong Kong and Macao (liberal market economy), and Zhuhai and Sanya (socialist market economy). Structured interviews were conducted with 569 business operators to explore how their stated adaptation practice is related to institutional trust and social capital. We found that trust predicted action only in Sanya, which is characterized by a high level of public confidence in authorities. In places of lower institutional trust, social capital became a salient and powerful driver of action. The weakening of the social contracts in Hong Kong and Macao turned their people to alternative social mechanisms. We explain the results in terms of the development trajectories, socio-political norms and institutional settings of these jurisdictions. This study provides insights into how adaptation practice can be mediated by the consequences of a change in political leadership, policy, or governance arrangements that alters the relationship of trust.  相似文献   

The diet of haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus L.) in the Barents Sea during the period 1984-1991     

Jiang  W.; Jorgensen  T. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1996,53(1):11-21

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GPS卫星原子钟频率稳定度表征方法分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

冯遂亮  宋力杰 《全球定位系统》2009,34(1):19-23

原子钟频率稳定度的表征通常在时域和频域进行，而对于“尺度域”小波方差表征方法的分析研究较少。对该方法进行系统归纳总结的基础上，给出时域尺度域两类不同表征方法的实用计算公式及其置信度计算方法，通过对各种方差特性的比较分析，指出其适用范围。分析表明：时域系列方差计算简单、直接，各具特点，可以满足不同的实际需要；尺度域的小波方差是一种具有独特优越性的新方法，但可以达到时域表征方法的效果，适用于进行原子钟频率稳定度的估计。  相似文献   

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Paul Thompson  Yuzhi Cai  Dominic Reeve  Julian Stander 《Coastal Engineering》2009,56(10):1013-1021

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.  相似文献   

Stability of motion in the Sitnikov 3-body problem     

P. Soulis  T. Bountis  R. Dvorak 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,99(2):129-148

We study the stability of motion in the 3-body Sitnikov problem, with the two equal mass primaries (m ₁ = m ₂ = 0.5) rotating in the x, y plane and vary the mass of the third particle, 0 ≤ m ₃ < 10⁻³, placed initially on the z-axis. We begin by finding for the restricted problem (with m ₃ = 0) an apparently infinite sequence of stability intervals on the z-axis, whose width grows and tends to a fixed non-zero value, as we move away from z = 0. We then estimate the extent of “islands” of bounded motion in x, y, z space about these intervals and show that it also increases as |z| grows. Turning to the so-called extended Sitnikov problem, where the third particle moves only along the z-axis, we find that, as m ₃ increases, the domain of allowed motion grows significantly and chaotic regions in phase space appear through a series of saddle-node bifurcations. Finally, we concentrate on the general 3-body problem and demonstrate that, for very small masses, m ₃ ≈ 10⁻⁶, the “islands” of bounded motion about the z-axis stability intervals are larger than the ones for m ₃ = 0. Furthermore, as m ₃ increases, it is the regions of bounded motion closest to z = 0 that disappear first, while the ones further away “disperse” at larger m ₃ values, thus providing further evidence of an increasing stability of the motion away from the plane of the two primaries, as observed in the m ₃ = 0 case.  相似文献   

论船舶物权变动登记之公信力     

王立志  韩自强 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(2):34-36

船舶物权变动采用登记公示方式,登记应当具有公信力,登记公信力制度的确立旨在保护第三人之利益。登记是制度创设,应该承认船舶登记的公信力以满足该制度之宗旨。船舶登记的对抗效力不影响登记公信力的存在,但该登记的公信力受到限制。  相似文献   

Statistical significance of modal parameters of bridge systems identified from strong motion data     

Yalin Arici  Khalid M. Mosalam 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(10):1323-1341

Modal parameters of structural systems have commonly been determined using system identification (SI) methods for damage detection and health monitoring. For determining the deterioration of the integrity of structural systems correctly, modal parameters of a healthy structure have to be obtained with adequate certainty so that these parameters can be used as reliable references for the healthy system to compare with those of the damaged system. In this study, the statistical significance of modal parameters identified using strong motion time histories recorded on two bridge structures is assessed. The confidence intervals of identified modal frequencies and damping ratios are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses in conjunction with eigenrealization algorithm. The dependence of the statistical bounds on model parameters is examined. The effect of using different number of sensors on the statistical significance is evaluated using simulated time history data from a validated finite element model of a bridge. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of lidar-derived digital elevation models   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fernando J.  Aguilar  Jon. P.  Mills 《The Photogrammetric Record》2008,23(122):148-169

Despite the relatively high cost of airborne lidar-derived digital elevation models (DEMs), such products are usually presented without a satisfactory associated estimate of accuracy. For the most part, DEM accuracy estimates are typically provided by comparing lidar heights against a finite sample of check point coordinates from an independent source of higher accuracy, supposing a normal distribution of the derived height differences or errors. This paper proposes a new methodology to assess the vertical accuracy of lidar DEMs using confidence intervals constructed from a finite sample of errors computed at check points. A non-parametric approach has been tested where no particular error distribution is assumed, making the proposed methodology especially applicable to non-normal error distributions of the type usually found in DEMs derived from lidar. The performance of the proposed model was experimentally validated using Monte Carlo simulation on 18 vertical error data-sets. Fifteen of these data-sets were computed from original lidar data provided by the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Working Group III/3, using their respective filtered reference data as ground truth. The three remaining data-sets were provided by the Natural Environment Research Council's Airborne Research and Survey Facility lidar system, together with check points acquired using high precision kinematic GPS. The results proved promising, the proposed models reproducing the statistical behaviour of vertical errors of lidar using a favourable number of check points, even in the cases of data-sets with non-normally distributed residuals. This research can therefore be considered as a potentially important step towards improving the quality control of lidar-derived DEMs.  相似文献